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Matthew_Barnett
Predictions
1564
Comments
646
Member Since
November 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Matthew_Barnett
17 comments
57 forecasters
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
Current estimate
13 Sep 2030
25 comments
134 forecasters
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
result
No
2 comments
1 forecaster
How many registrations will there be for the FY2024 H1B cap lottery?
community
799k
result
780.884k
10 comments
22 forecasters
What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?
community
0.00655
result
Ambiguous
3 comments
8 forecasters
How many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run before the first year in which gross world product exceeds 30% of its peak?
Current estimate
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
13 comments
101 forecasters
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?
Current estimate
May 2032
5 comments
10 forecasters
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
Current estimate
63.9 months
24 comments
42 forecasters
Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?
result
Yes
22 comments
97 forecasters
When will the first fully automated McDonalds open in the United States?
Current estimate
06 Oct 2029
29 comments
48 forecasters
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Current estimate
301 months
5 comments
9 forecasters
What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US for January 2035?
Current estimate
46.6%
Key Factors
Gig workers' inclusion affects participation rate
2 comments
14 forecasters
Will the US phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030?
12.4%
chance
7 comments
24 forecasters
If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?
community
3.89B
result
Ambiguous
92 comments
104 forecasters
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
community
301 months
result
300 months
1 comment
41 forecasters
Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?
48%
chance
3 comments
14 forecasters
What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?
Current estimate
3.09%
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