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Matthew_Barnett
Predictions
1505
Comments
646
Member Since
November 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Matthew_Barnett
11
comments
52
forecasters
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
25
comments
134
forecasters
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
result
No
2
comments
1
forecaster
How many registrations will there be for the FY2024 H1B cap lottery?
community
799k
result
780.884k
10
comments
22
forecasters
What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?
community
0.00655
result
Ambiguous
3
comments
7
forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
Current estimate
2.3×10²⁹ FLOP
12
comments
91
forecasters
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?
Current estimate
Sep 2032
5
comments
10
forecasters
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
Current estimate
72.7 months
24
comments
42
forecasters
Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?
result
Yes
22
comments
94
forecasters
When will the first fully automated McDonalds open in the United States?
Current estimate
20 Sep 2029
29
comments
46
forecasters
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Current estimate
299 months
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