Gaia

Predictions629

Comments1139

Member SinceJanuary 2019

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by Gaia

Metaculus Announces Forecasting Causes

Cultivating an Alternative Protein Forecasting Initiative

Metaculus and VDH Launch the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Initiative

Aligning Incentives for Forecast Accuracy, Relevance, and Efficacy: A New Paradigm for Metaculus Tournaments

A New Design Language for Metaculus

Can Metaculus Create A Trading Signal?

Forecasting, Science, and Epistemology

Metaculus Awarded $5.5M Grant to Advance Forecasting as a Public Good

Becoming a Public Benefit Corporation, Hitting 1 Million Predictions, and Three New AI Forecasting Roles

Announcing Deger Turan as the new CEO of Metaculus

156 forecasters

Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?

resultNo

126 forecasters

Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?

resultYes

492 forecasters

Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

resultNo

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

Metaculus Year in Review: 2022

Why I Reject the Comparison of Metaculus to Prediction Markets

53 forecasters

Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?

resultYes

218 forecasters

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

community

104k

result

Ambiguous

35 forecasters

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? (obsolete version)

community

10.4k

result

Ambiguous

35 forecasters

Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?

resultNo

Change in Staffing Announcement

648 forecasters

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

resultNo

380 forecasters

Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?

resultYes

295 forecasters

How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?

community

>8M

result

More than 8M