MaxR

Predictions3807

Comments437

Member SinceSeptember 2019

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by MaxR

10 comments

7 forecasters

Will Polymarket be available to U.S. customers in the following years?

2027

94%

2029

82%

2031

67.5%

3 comments

10 forecasters

How many members of Trump's second-term Cabinet will be convicted of crimes before 2033?

Current estimate

5.48 People

Key Factors

Trump to preemptively pardon allies
State-specific conviction pathways exist

6 comments

19 forecasters

How many volunteers will join Germany's military in 2026 and 2027?

2026

17.6k

2027

18.7k

4 comments

19 forecasters

Will snap presidential elections be held in Turkey before the regularly scheduled May 2028 election?

40%chance

4 comments

11 forecasters

Which Party will win the next Turkish presidential election? (2028)

CHP

20.8%

AKP

71.9%

İYİ

Other

3.1%

3 others

Key Factors

Possibility of Erdogan extending his term

11 comments

21 forecasters

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

Germany

75%

Italy

23%

Australia

result: Yes

5 comments

26 forecasters

Which party will lead the next German government?

CDU/CSU

73.3%

SPD

17.6%

AfD

4.2%

The Greens

4.2%

4 others

Key Factors

Positive development of economy and labor market.
Reduction of housing prices and better affordability.
AfD polling as strongest force

12 comments

8 forecasters

What percentage of all 2024 Fortune 500 companies are still listed in 2030?

Current estimate

82.9

16 comments

11 forecasters

What will Bangladesh's World Press Freedom Index rating be for 2025?

Good or Satisfactory: 70–100 points

0.1%

Problematic: 55–70 points

Difficult: 40–55 points

40%

Very serious <40 points

result: Yes

10 comments

10 forecasters

Will women aged 50 or older birth more than 10,000 children in the US in the following years?

40 comments

77 forecasters

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

10%chance

4% this week

Key Factors

Majority of Union voters reject AfD cooperation
Merz opposes AfD alliance as CDU leader
Eastern CDU leaders want to reconsider cordon sanitaire

9 comments

38 forecasters

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

resultNo

25 comments

26 forecasters

Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?

EPP + S&D + RE

Annulled

EPP + S&D + RE + G/EFA

Annulled

EPP + RE + ECR

Annulled

EPP + S&D + G/EFA

Annulled

2 others

15 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

community

4.07B

result

34 comments

101 forecasters

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?

resultNo

10 comments

17 forecasters

Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?

resultNo