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NathanpmYoung

Predictions3027

Comments247

Member SinceFebruary 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by NathanpmYoung

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22 forecasters

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.1%chance

1 forecaster

What is the top SWE-Bench Verified score on the following dates?

2025 Q2Upcoming

2025 Q371.3

2025 Q477.4

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

2025 Q2Upcoming

2025 Q3Upcoming

2025 Q4Upcoming

What is the top GPQA score on the following dates?

2025 Q2Upcoming

2025 Q3Upcoming

2025 Q4Upcoming

35 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?

14%chance

3 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"75%

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"34%

xAI, "soft nationalization"25%

44 forecasters

Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?

resultNo

4 forecasters

Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?

48.2%chance

5 forecasters

Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?

38.5%chance

16 forecasters

Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?

resultNo