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NathanpmYoung

Predictions3027

Comments247

Member SinceFebruary 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

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Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

What is the top SWE-Bench Verified score on the following dates?

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

What is the top GPQA score on the following dates?

Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"75%

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"34%

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"25%

Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?

Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?

Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?

Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?