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NathanpmYoung
Predictions
3002
Comments
247
Member Since
February 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by NathanpmYoung
What is the top SWE-Bench Verified score on the following dates?
What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?
What is the top GPQA score on the following dates?
Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?
19%
chance
Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?
Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"
75%
Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"
40%
Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"
34%
and 9 others
Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
result
No
Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?
48.2%
chance
Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?
38.5%
chance
Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?
result
No
What will be the Xclaim market price for FTX accounts, as a % of account balance, on April 1, 2024?
result
More than 85
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