Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

ought

Predictions163

Comments12

Member SinceMarch 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by ought

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

23 forecasters

Amplified forecasting: What will Buck's informed prediction of compute used in the largest ML training run before 2030 be?

community

12.3

result

Ambiguous

38 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?

community

32.9

result

33.73428571

45 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?

community

36.9

result

34.02

37 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?

community

33.9

result

33.36

27 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?

community

34

result

31.27

51 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?

community

53.8

result

54.10428571

51 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?

community

53.2

result

51.07

44 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?

community

48.5

result

47.61

36 forecasters

How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?

community

34.6

result

36.66

Introducing Elicit

Introducing Ergo

47 forecasters

What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?

community

4940

result

5021

53 forecasters

What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?

community

188B

result

214.4275365B

77 forecasters

What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?

community

4.37

result

4.4

58 forecasters

Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?

resultNo

67 forecasters

Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?

resultNo