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dschwarz
Predictions
381
Comments
97
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by dschwarz
22 comments
168 forecasters
Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?
result
Yes
23 comments
58 forecasters
Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024?
Google Deep Mind
result:
No
Inflection
result:
No
OpenAI
result:
No
Anthropic
result:
No
Meta
result:
No
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
OpenAI
result:
No
Google Deep Mind
result:
No
Inflection
result:
No
Meta
result:
No
Anthropic
result:
No
17 comments
47 forecasters
Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?
result
No
0 comments
6 forecasters
AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook → When AI concern go mainstream in US?
This question is closed for forecasting.
1 comment
11 forecasters
AI in 2024 Presidential Debates → When AI concern go mainstream in US?
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
5 forecasters
Deepfake Attempt in Major News in 2023 → When will GPT5 be announced?
10 comments
79 forecasters
Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?
result
No
10 comments
65 forecasters
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
result
No
11 comments
49 forecasters
When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?
community
16 Nov 2024
result
13 May 2024 UTC
10 comments
65 forecasters
Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?
result
No
5 comments
67 forecasters
Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?
result
No
13 comments
63 forecasters
Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?
result
No
3 comments
77 forecasters
Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?
result
No
3 comments
54 forecasters
Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?
result
No
4 comments
31 forecasters
Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?
result
Yes
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