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MichaelA

Predictions10

Comments144

Member SinceDecember 2020

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Questions by MichaelA

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Securing a Flourishing Future by Forecasting Nuclear Risks

Collection of questions on nuclear targeting

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

Nuclear risk funding & labor

31 forecasters

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

60.6%chance

46 forecasters

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance

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Hi! I'm the new Nuclear Risk Community Shaper