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ege_erdil

Predictions1855

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Member SinceDecember 2020

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Questions by ege_erdil

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Hyperbolic takeoff

46 forecasters

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

73%chance

Sums and Products

20 forecasters

Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?

8%chance

9 forecasters

When will the abc conjecture be settled?

Current estimate

Sep 2046

17 forecasters

Is the abc conjecture true?

96%chance

Phase transitions and AGI

Computability and Complexity

48 forecasters

When will P = NP be settled?

Current estimate

2077

13 forecasters

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

Current estimate

91.9

12 forecasters

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

Current estimate

61.5

Forecasting Asset Prices

99 forecasters

Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?

resultNo

28 forecasters

What volatility will BTC realize from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2026?

Current estimate

2.41%

Population Crashes: The Deadliest Events In History

25 forecasters

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

Current estimate

44.4M deaths

28 forecasters

How much will world population decline after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050?

Current estimate

6.31%