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ege_erdil
Predictions
1855
Comments
168
Member Since
December 2020
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Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ege_erdil
Hyperbolic takeoff
7
2
2
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
20
comments
45
forecasters
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?
61%
chance
Sums and Products
11
4
4
comments
3
comments
20
forecasters
Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?
12.3%
chance
1
comment
8
forecasters
When will the abc conjecture be settled?
Current estimate
Feb 2039
11
comments
16
forecasters
Is the abc conjecture true?
91%
chance
Phase transitions and AGI
15
5
5
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
Computability and Complexity
16
1
1
comment
Metaculus Journal Archives
7
comments
46
forecasters
When will P = NP be settled?
Current estimate
2077
2
comments
13
forecasters
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?
Current estimate
78.8
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