RyanBeck

Predictions9006

Comments4886

Member SinceFebruary 2021

occupationForecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus

125 forecasters

3% this week

13 forecasters

Liability unsettled

Precedent bars liability

Precedent allows liability

Law allows Liability

Law bars liability

48 forecasters

2% this week

anthropic.com:
GLM-5.3 and the spread of advanced cyber capabilities

120 forecasters

Escaped sandbox

Hacked third party

19 forecasters

US federal government

State of California

58 forecasters

6% this week

transluce.org:
AI Agents Targeted U.S. and Canadian Government Websites

4 forecasters

5 forecasters

482 forecasters

410 forecasters

2 forecasters

227 forecasters

Current estimate

>28 May 2027

352 forecasters

Current estimate

219 forecasters

302 forecasters

Current estimate

3.51 Officials

RyanBeck

RyanBeck

Questions by RyanBeck

Will it be confirmed before 2027 that the "swarm" in the July 2026 Hugging Face incident exfiltrated any OpenAI model weights?

What will be the US legal status of civil liability arising from autonomous AI conduct as of January 1, 2028?

Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? → What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

What will the average interest rate on the US federal government's total debt be at the end of these fiscal years?

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

Will it be confirmed before 2027 that the "swarm" in the July 2026 Hugging Face incident exfiltrated any OpenAI model weights?

What will be the US legal status of civil liability arising from autonomous AI conduct as of January 1, 2028?

Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? → What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

What will the average interest rate on the US federal government's total debt be at the end of these fiscal years?

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum