RyanBeck

Predictions8973

Comments4878

Member SinceFebruary 2021

occupationForecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus

links

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by RyanBeck

4 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? → What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

3 forecasters

What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

Current estimate

8.93%

42 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

2%chance

2% this week

25 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats59.6%

Republicans38.7%

Other1.7%

14 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

18 forecasters

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

Current estimate

04 Feb 2027

21 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate

-18.5%

15 forecasters

What will the average interest rate on the US federal government's total debt be at the end of these fiscal years?

21 forecasters

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Current estimate

4.78 Officials

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

Introducing: Conflict-Driven Interest

1 forecaster

Is Metaculus' Conflict-Driven Interest program an April Fool's joke?

resultYes

22 forecasters

What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the 20th-percentile US family in the following years?

31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

136 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?

1%chance

Respiratory Outlook February Update: Measles Expected to Climb to 30-Year Peak

Winners of the Colombia Wage Watch Tournament

29 forecasters

What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?

33 forecasters

What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?

Bridgewater x Metaculus Contest 2026 Welcome + Q&A

Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026 winners to be announced soon!

Respiratory Outlook January Update: Imminent Peak and Rising Measles

21 forecasters

Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?

28%chance

Market Pulse 26Q1 Opening Bell: Building Consistent Signal