RyanBeck

Predictions8997

Comments4882

Member SinceFebruary 2021

occupationForecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by RyanBeck

102 forecasters

Will it be confirmed before 2027 that the "swarm" in the July 2026 Hugging Face incident exfiltrated any OpenAI model weights?

11%chance

4% this week

11 forecasters

What will be the US legal status of civil liability arising from autonomous AI conduct as of January 1, 2028?

Liability unsettled

53.8%

Precedent bars liability

4.3%

Precedent allows liability

10.7%

Law allows Liability

28.3%

Law bars liability

2.9%

33 forecasters

Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?

78%chance

16% this week

103 forecasters

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

Escaped sandbox

65%

Hacked third party

58%

15 forecasters

Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?

US federal government

8%

State of California

20%

40 forecasters

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

75%chance

37% this week

4 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? → What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

5 forecasters

What will be the day over day percentage change in Bayer's stock price following the Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell decision?

community

8.27%

result

16.98%

199 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

2%chance

157 forecasters

Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

Democrats

62.4%

Republicans

34.5%

Other

3.1%

2 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

92 forecasters

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

Current estimate

22 Apr 2027

145 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate

-19%

92 forecasters

What will the average interest rate on the US federal government's total debt be at the end of these fiscal years?

119 forecasters

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Current estimate

4.19 Officials

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum