Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
H559
Predictions
20394
Comments
893
Member Since
June 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by H559
3
comments
23
forecasters
Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?
16%
chance
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
138
comments
1.2k
forecasters
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
community
14 Aug 2025
result
07 Aug 2025 17:00
Key Factors
Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)
12
comments
16
forecasters
What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?
community
1.92M
result
1.66M
AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research
10
0
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
1
comment
17
forecasters
When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?
Current estimate
Mar 2057
10
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030?
Current estimate
16.1k $
25
comments
15
forecasters
When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?
Current estimate
Sep 2050
4
comments
31
forecasters
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?
52.5%
chance
13
comments
35
forecasters
Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?
12%
chance
Load More