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H559
Predictions
20489
Comments
894
Member Since
June 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by H559
3 comments
30 forecasters
Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?
11%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
16 comments
15 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
0
138 comments
1.2k forecasters
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
community
14 Aug 2025
result
07 Aug 2025 17:00 UTC
12 comments
16 forecasters
What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?
community
1.92M
result
1.66M
0 comments
AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research
1 comment
17 forecasters
When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?
Current estimate
Mar 2057
10 comments
29 forecasters
What will be the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030?
Latest estimate
14.6k $
This question is closed for forecasting.
25 comments
15 forecasters
When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so?
Current estimate
Sep 2050
4 comments
31 forecasters
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?
55%
chance
13 comments
36 forecasters
Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?
14%
chance
13 comments
28 forecasters
What will be the mean age of the next 5 US Presidents from 2022 to 2040?
Current estimate
64.6 years
24 comments
14 forecasters
What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?
community
2295
result
1820
4 comments
15 forecasters
When will an upper-bound on the age of federal US politicians be implemented?
Current estimate
2077
13 comments
28 forecasters
Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?
35%
chance
17 comments
26 forecasters
What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?
community
1.12M
result
1.14M
7 comments
23 forecasters
What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?
community
1.08
result
1.257
8 comments
25 forecasters
What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
community
12.9
result
11
9 comments
36 forecasters
What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?
community
77.3
result
78
9 comments
24 forecasters
What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
community
5.86
result
6