stanulamstan

Predictions5073

Comments2021

Member SinceJune 2021

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by stanulamstan

33 forecasters

Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?

22%chance

Key Factors

UN bias increases ICJ ruling likelihood

167 forecasters

Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?

resultYes

15 forecasters

Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?

42%chance

99 forecasters

Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?

resultNo

28 forecasters

Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?

resultNo

35 forecasters

Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?

resultYes

167 forecasters

Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?

resultYes

26 forecasters

Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?

resultYes

33 forecasters

Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?

50%chance

17 forecasters

Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?

20%chance

28 forecasters

Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?

resultYes

84 forecasters

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

1%chance

96 forecasters

Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?

resultNo

141 forecasters

Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?

resultNo

151 forecasters

Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?

resultYes

211 forecasters

If Kyiv falls in 2022, when will it happen?

community

27 Dec 2022 07:09

result

Ambiguous

707 forecasters

Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?

resultNo

132 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

32%chance

791 forecasters

Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?

resultNo

60 forecasters

Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?

resultNo

138 forecasters

Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?

15%chance

59 forecasters

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

15.8%chance

84 forecasters

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

50%chance

41 forecasters

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Current estimate

Feb 2049