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stanulamstan
Predictions
5085
Comments
2022
Member Since
June 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by stanulamstan
20 comments
30 forecasters
Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?
19%
chance
Key Factors
UN bias increases ICJ ruling likelihood
30 comments
167 forecasters
Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?
result
Yes
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?
50%
chance
8%
this week
27 comments
99 forecasters
Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?
result
No
22 comments
28 forecasters
Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?
result
No
19 comments
35 forecasters
Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?
result
Yes
79 comments
167 forecasters
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?
result
Yes
25 comments
26 forecasters
Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?
result
Yes
13 comments
31 forecasters
Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?
50%
chance
1 comment
16 forecasters
Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?
20%
chance
8 comments
28 forecasters
Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?
result
Yes
11 comments
82 forecasters
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?
0.5%
chance
13 comments
96 forecasters
Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?
result
No
24 comments
141 forecasters
Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?
result
No
113 comments
151 forecasters
Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?
result
Yes
8 comments
211 forecasters
If Kyiv falls in 2022, when will it happen?
community
27 Dec 2022 07:09
result
Ambiguous
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