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will_aldred

Predictions5444

Comments116

Member SinceJuly 2021

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by will_aldred

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19 forecasters

Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?

27%chance

14% this week

26 forecasters

Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?

4%chance

29 forecasters

When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?

community

>01 Jan 2025

result

More than 01 Jan 2025

21 forecasters

Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?

resultYes

71 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10.1%chance

75 forecasters

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

25%chance

48 forecasters

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

Current estimate

4.92 score

96 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?

60%chance

22 forecasters

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

Current estimate

81.8B billion animals

57 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

6%chance

4% this week

64 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?

3%chance

36 forecasters

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

Current estimate

13.7%

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

28 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

Current estimate

468k TWh

47 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

1%chance

Five years after AGI, will there be democracy?

Annulled