PhilippSchoenegger

Predictions9388

Comments699

Member SinceSeptember 2021

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by PhilippSchoenegger

100 forecasters

Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?

resultYes

52 forecasters

Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?

resultYes

26 forecasters

How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

community

105

result

6

40 forecasters

What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?

community

15.2

result

14.73

114 forecasters

Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

46 forecasters

How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?

community

7.77

result

11

62 forecasters

Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

93 forecasters

Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

125 forecasters

Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

107 forecasters

Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

96 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?

resultYes

72 forecasters

Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

resultNo

56 forecasters

Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?

resultYes

33 forecasters

How many full-time Walmart careers will be listed on the Walmart Careers site on May 31, 2024?

community

60k

result

Annulled

39 forecasters

What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?

community

62.6

result

62.5

37 forecasters

What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?

community

27.8

result

28.19

42 forecasters

What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?

community

62.1

result

82.951

49 forecasters

What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?

community

597

result

678.5

57 forecasters

What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?

community

5.25

result

5.33

31 forecasters

How many North Korean individuals and entities will be sanctioned by the US in 2024 between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

community

6.33

result

Annulled

4 forecasters

What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

community

<0

result

Annulled

1 forecaster

How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

community

0.0442

result

Annulled

43 forecasters

What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

community

560

result

743

45 forecasters

How many F-16 jets will officially be pledged to Ukraine by May 31, 2024?

community

55.3

result

Annulled