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DaAdCh
Predictions
10926
Comments
232
Member Since
September 2021
location
UK
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DaAdCh
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will U.S. District Judge Eleanor L. Ross leave office before 2027?
50%
chance
0 comments
6 forecasters
Will Karen Bass be reelected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2026?
50%
chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?
50%
chance
4 comments
52 forecasters
Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 4 hours
%
chance
Key Factors
China's leverage in supply chains
2 comments
26 forecasters
What will be the US National Science Foundation discretionary budget for the 2028 fiscal year, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
6.5B
Republican Congress
5.79B
Split Congress
6.11B
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
2%
Republican Congress
50%
Split Congress
5%
0 comments
35 forecasters
Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
55%
Republican Congress
10%
Split Congress
22%
0 comments
26 forecasters
How many Article III appellate judges will be confirmed by the US Senate in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
6.3
Republican Congress
11.5
Split Congress
10
0 comments
27 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
39.1
Republican Congress
42.5
Split Congress
40.6
0 comments
14 forecasters
What will be Mexico's forecasted meat consumption for 2027?
Current estimate
11k 1000 MT CWE
0 comments
13 forecasters
How many New World screwworm cases will be confirmed in Mexico in total before July 2027?
Current estimate
63.8k cases
4 comments
106 forecasters
Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?
3%
chance
0 comments
11 forecasters
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?
1
26.8%
2
18.4%
3
16.4%
5
9.7%
4 others
0 comments
14 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?
Current estimate
73
1 comment
17 forecasters
Will a new cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale before July 2027?
67%
chance
18 comments
104 forecasters
Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?
71%
chance
5%
this week
Key Factors
Split in PIC camps increases uncertainty
All camps agree on need for appointment
Ambassador Lagumdžija confirms smooth transition
0 comments
13 forecasters
What will India's total meat production per capita be during 2026-2027?
Current estimate
7.87 kg per capita
6 comments
75 forecasters
What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?
Current estimate
27.2%
Key Factors
Recent voting figures were heavily revised
2021 turnout reset baseline to low 20s
19 comments
110 forecasters
What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?
community
2.96
result
2.759
14 comments
103 forecasters
Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?
The Balusters
5.1%
Giant
12.6%
Liberation
result:
Yes
Little Bear Ridge Road
2%
22 comments
127 forecasters
Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?
98%
chance
Key Factors
Centenary strengthens San Marino visit
No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
Summer vacation closes July travel window
3 comments
46 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?
0
Hidden
1
Hidden
2
Hidden
3
Hidden
2 others
Key Factors
1 average count
By
2026
Pre-September major hurricanes mean and mode over 2016-2025
El Niño suppresses activity (especially early season)
tropical.colostate.edu:
CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting
14 comments
126 forecasters
Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?
17%
chance
8%
this week
Key Factors
news.met.police.uk:
Largest ever counter terrorism training exercise held in central London
Summer events increase likelihood of maintaining level
Institutional caution favors maintaining high level
14 comments
138 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Iván Cepeda
18.8%
Abelardo de la Espriella
81%
Paloma Valencia
0.1%
Another candidate
0.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Key Factors
De la Espriella gaining street momentum
Violence depressing rural turnout
Desire for focus on security
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