DaAdCh

Predictions10926

Comments232

Member SinceSeptember 2021

locationUK

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by DaAdCh

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will U.S. District Judge Eleanor L. Ross leave office before 2027?

50%chance

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will Karen Bass be reelected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2026?

50%chance

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?

50%chance

4 comments

52 forecasters

Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 hours

%chance

Key Factors

China's leverage in supply chains

2 comments

26 forecasters

What will be the US National Science Foundation discretionary budget for the 2028 fiscal year, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress6.5B

Republican Congress5.79B

Split Congress6.11B

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will a bill restricting federal abortion funding or access pass both chambers of the 120th Congress, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress2%

Republican Congress50%

Split Congress5%

0 comments

35 forecasters

Will the U.S. Congress limit presidential war powers before January 3, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress55%

Republican Congress10%

Split Congress22%

0 comments

26 forecasters

How many Article III appellate judges will be confirmed by the US Senate in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress6.3

Republican Congress11.5

Split Congress10

0 comments

27 forecasters

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress39.1

Republican Congress42.5

Split Congress40.6

0 comments

14 forecasters

What will be Mexico's forecasted meat consumption for 2027?

Current estimate

11k 1000 MT CWE

0 comments

13 forecasters

How many New World screwworm cases will be confirmed in Mexico in total before July 2027?

Current estimate

63.8k cases

4 comments

106 forecasters

Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before September 2026?

3%chance

0 comments

11 forecasters

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

126.8%

218.4%

316.4%

59.7%

4 others

0 comments

14 forecasters

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

Current estimate

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will a new cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale before July 2027?

67%chance

18 comments

104 forecasters

Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?

71%chance

5% this week

Key Factors

Split in PIC camps increases uncertainty
All camps agree on need for appointment
Ambassador Lagumdžija confirms smooth transition

0 comments

13 forecasters

What will India's total meat production per capita be during 2026-2027?

Current estimate

7.87 kg per capita

6 comments

75 forecasters

What will be the voter turnout in the 2026 Algerian National People's Assembly elections?

Current estimate

27.2%

Key Factors

Recent voting figures were heavily revised
2021 turnout reset baseline to low 20s

19 comments

110 forecasters

What will be the Global Peace Index score for Iran in 2026?

community

2.96

result

2.759

14 comments

103 forecasters

Which theatrical production will win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?

The Balusters5.1%

Giant12.6%

Liberationresult: Yes

Little Bear Ridge Road2%

22 comments

127 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?

98%chance

Key Factors

Centenary strengthens San Marino visit
No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
Summer vacation closes July travel window

3 comments

46 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026?

0Hidden

1Hidden

2Hidden

3Hidden

2 others

Key Factors

1 average count By 2026
Pre-September major hurricanes mean and mode over 2016-2025
El Niño suppresses activity (especially early season)
tropical.colostate.edu:
CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting

14 comments

126 forecasters

Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?

17%chance

8% this week

Key Factors

news.met.police.uk:
Largest ever counter terrorism training exercise held in central London
Summer events increase likelihood of maintaining level
Institutional caution favors maintaining high level

14 comments

138 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Iván Cepeda18.8%

Abelardo de la Espriella81%

Paloma Valencia0.1%

Another candidate0.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Key Factors

De la Espriella gaining street momentum
Violence depressing rural turnout
Desire for focus on security