18
137 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Save the Children
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
Considering the stakes, there is a decent argument to make that this is worth the prize
Increases Likelihood for Donald J. Trump
Trump still wants the Nobel Peace Prize even if he says he does not care
Increases Likelihood for Donald J. Trump
ERR winning Rafto Prize boosts likelihood
Increases Likelihood for Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
PRIO's director shortlist increases chances
Increases Likelihood
Unlisted candidates more likely to win
Increases Likelihood