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skmmcj
Predictions
27617
Comments
4638
Member Since
April 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by skmmcj
0 comments
3 forecasters
What will be the percentage change in funds raised by GiveWell between 2026 and the following years?
2027
105
2028
145
0 comments
2 forecasters
What will be the percentage change in contributions received by METR between 2026 and the following fiscal years?
2027
302
2028
304
10 comments
Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras!
0 comments
4 forecasters
What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?
2027
27.6
2028
33.9
0 comments
2 forecasters
What will be the percentage change in Coefficient Giving's annual grantmaking from 2026 to the following years?
2027
160
2028
161
0 comments
7 forecasters
What will be Anthropic's market cap when its IPO lock-up period ends?
Current estimate
1.78T $
7 comments
84 forecasters
How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?
community
892M $
result
891.821029M $
0 comments
5 forecasters
How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?
45-89
9.6%
90-134
22.3%
135-179
33.2%
180
22.3%
2 others
2 comments
55 forecasters
Which party will win the 2026 Montana Senate election?
Democrat
1%
Republican
94%
Other
5%
2 comments
49 forecasters
Which party will win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election?
Democrat
0.1%
Republican
73.5%
Other
26.4%
1 comment
56 forecasters
Will AI safety legislation be enacted in 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?
Democratic Congress
79%
Republican Congress
50%
Split Congress
60%
21 comments
AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion
14 comments
10 forecasters
When will an autonomous machine governor for Force generation be fielded by a G-20 state?
Latest estimate
>Jan 2050
This question is closed for forecasting.
18 comments
10 forecasters
When will an autonomous machine governor for Strategic signalling be fielded by a G-20 state?
Latest estimate
>Jan 2050
This question is closed for forecasting.
14 comments
10 forecasters
When will an autonomous machine governor for Alliance management be fielded by a G-20 state?
Latest estimate
>Jan 2050
This question is closed for forecasting.
24 comments
10 forecasters
When will an autonomous machine governor for Escalation management be fielded by a G-20 state?
Latest estimate
>Jan 2050
This question is closed for forecasting.
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