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NMorrison
Predictions
5189
Comments
2411
Member Since
September 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by NMorrison
condition
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)
Resolved:
Yes
14 forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)
77%
77%
Resolved:
Yes
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)
44%
44%
Resolved:
Annulled
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
condition
Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris
Resolved:
Yes
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)
No forecasts yet
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)
No forecasts yet
2
1 comment
1
Conditional Cup
condition
Russian draft demobilization in 2024?
Closed
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?
28%
28%
Resolved:
Annulled
2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?
21%
21%
Resolved:
Annulled
2
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
condition
Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States)
Resolved:
Yes
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?
5%
5%
Resolved:
No
HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?
1%
1%
Resolved:
Annulled
2
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
On June 30, 2027, where will most of Metaculus' impact come from?
Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)
35.2%
Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)
26.3%
Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally
20.3%
and 2 others
condition
RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?
Resolved:
Yes
25 forecasters
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
45%
45%
Resolved:
Yes
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
45%
45%
Resolved:
Annulled
4
no comments
0
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?
United Kingdom
result:
Yes
United States
result:
Yes
Zambia
result:
Yes
and 12 others
What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?
Low
result:
Yes
Moderate
result:
No
Very Low
result:
No
and 2 others
condition
Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?
Resolved:
No
17 forecasters
if yes
if no
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
Resolved:
Annulled
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
3
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
result
No
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