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NMorrison
Predictions
5190
Comments
2411
Member Since
September 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by NMorrison
condition
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)
Resolved:
Yes
14
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)
77%
77%
Resolved:
Yes
Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)
44%
44%
Resolved:
Annulled
1
0
comments
14
14
forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition
Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris
Resolved:
Yes
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)
No forecasts yet
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)
No forecasts yet
2
1
1
comment
Conditional Cup
condition
Russian draft demobilization in 2024?
Closed
12
forecasters
if yes
if no
2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?
28%
28%
Resolved:
Annulled
2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?
21%
21%
Resolved:
Annulled
2
0
comments
12
12
forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition
Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States)
Resolved:
Yes
12
forecasters
if yes
if no
HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?
5%
5%
Resolved:
No
HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?
1%
1%
Resolved:
Annulled
2
0
comments
12
12
forecasters
Conditional Cup
4
comments
12
forecasters
On June 30, 2027, where will most of Metaculus' impact come from?
Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)
30%
Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)
26%
Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally
20%
2 others
24%
condition
RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?
Resolved:
Yes
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
45%
45%
Resolved:
Yes
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
45%
45%
Resolved:
Annulled
4
0
comments
24
24
forecasters
21
comments
19
forecasters
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?
United Kingdom
result:
Yes
United States
result:
Yes
Zambia
result:
Yes
12 others
3
comments
17
forecasters
What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?
Low
result:
Yes
Moderate
1%
Very Low
0.1%
2 others
0%
condition
Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
Resolved:
Annulled
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
3
0
comments
17
17
forecasters
Conditional Cup
66
comments
118
forecasters
Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
result
No
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