NMorrison

Predictions5190

Comments2411

Member SinceSeptember 2022

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by NMorrison

14 forecasters

Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)

Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)

12 forecasters

Russian draft demobilization in 2024? → 2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?

12 forecasters

Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?

13 forecasters

On June 30, 2027, where will most of Metaculus' impact come from?

Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)

29.4%

Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)

25.5%

Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally

24.5%

Software We've Built

13.8%

Something Else

6.9%

24 forecasters

RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

19 forecasters

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

United Kingdom

result: Yes

Zambia

result: Yes

United States

result: Yes

India

result: Yes

11 others

17 forecasters

What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?

Very Low

0.1%

Low

result: Yes

Moderate

1%

High

0.1%

Very High

0.1%

17 forecasters

Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

118 forecasters

Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?

resultNo

72 forecasters

What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?

community

115

result

118.3

91 forecasters

Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?

resultNo

26 forecasters

2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)

27 forecasters

Israel to Invade Lebanon? → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?

77 forecasters

How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?

Zero

1%

One

result: Yes

More than One

54.6%

29 forecasters

Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?

New Mexico

result: Yes

Wisconsin

result: Yes

Washington

result: Yes

Montana

result: Yes

5 others