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Haiku
Predictions
10282
Comments
687
Member Since
May 2023
location
Tempe, AZ
occupation
Test Automation Developer / SQA Specialist
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Haiku
0 comments
Suggest Questions for the AI Warning Signs Community
7 comments
21 forecasters
Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?
20%
chance
2 comments
25 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
61.8%
chance
1 comment
19 forecasters
Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
27.9%
chance
6 comments
32 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
85%
chance
5%
this week
Key Factors
Independent:
AI-powered computer worms herald ‘new era’ of cybersecurity threats
1 comment
27 forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
99%
chance
0 comments
19 forecasters
Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?
95%
chance
12 comments
46 forecasters
When will Google DeepMind's Gemini model be publicly released?
community
05 Jan 2024
result
06 Dec 2023 15:00 UTC