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DavidHume
Predictions
1559
Comments
498
Member Since
August 2023
occupation
Philosopher
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidHume
17 comments
32 forecasters
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
result
No
5 comments
3 forecasters
US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh? → US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?
0 comments
6 forecasters
US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030? → US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?
4 comments
4 forecasters
When will the Chinese-built Comac C929 wide-body aircraft enter commercial operations?
Current estimate
13 Sep 2030
12 comments
32 forecasters
Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?
10%
chance
5 comments
18 forecasters
Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?
15%
chance
43 comments
27 forecasters
Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?
result
Yes
10 comments
8 forecasters
What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?
Current estimate
238 RTX 4060 = 100
16 comments
24 forecasters
Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?
3%
chance
22 comments
30 forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
90%
chance
6 comments
6 forecasters
Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?
25%
chance
11 comments
3 forecasters
What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?
community
Oct 2039
result
Jun 2039 UTC
10 comments
3 forecasters
When will a fully-automated closed loop insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes be approved?
Current estimate
Aug 2031
8 comments
16 forecasters
Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?
79%
chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033? → Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
6 comments
6 forecasters
When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?
Current estimate
Feb 2056