Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
DavidHume
Predictions
1576
Comments
500
Member Since
August 2023
occupation
Philosopher
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidHume
17 comments
32 forecasters
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
result
No
5 comments
3 forecasters
US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh? → US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?
0 comments
6 forecasters
US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030? → US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?
4 comments
4 forecasters
When will the Chinese-built Comac C929 wide-body aircraft enter commercial operations?
Current estimate
13 Sep 2030
12 comments
32 forecasters
Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?
10%
chance
5 comments
18 forecasters
Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?
15%
chance
43 comments
27 forecasters
Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?
result
Yes
10 comments
8 forecasters
What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?
Current estimate
238 RTX 4060 = 100
16 comments
24 forecasters
Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?
3%
chance
22 comments
30 forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
90%
chance
6 comments
6 forecasters
Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?
26%
chance
11 comments
3 forecasters
What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?
community
Oct 2039
result
Jun 2039 UTC
10 comments
4 forecasters
When will a fully-automated closed loop insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes be approved?
Current estimate
02 Aug 2031
8 comments
16 forecasters
Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?
79%
chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033? → Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
6 comments
6 forecasters
When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?
Current estimate
Feb 2056