romeodean

Predictions298

Comments18

Member SinceFebruary 2024

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by romeodean

3 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

1 forecaster

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

6 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

0

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Autonomy level 1

Upcoming

Uplift level 1

Upcoming

54 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

13 forecasters

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Current estimate

14 Apr 2028

4 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

Current estimate

12 May 2027

9 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?

Current estimate

28 Oct 2030

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?

Current estimate

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

Current estimate

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Current estimate

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Current estimate

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate