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9
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9 forecasters
Risk Threshold Forecasting
1 more...
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?
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Current estimate
05 Oct 2030
05 Oct 2030
(02 Feb 2029 - Mar 2032)
5.5 years
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Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
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