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ADQ
Predictions
14375
Comments
1047
Member Since
February 2024
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ADQ
Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?
Forecast revealed
in 5 days
Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?
10%
chance
3% this week
Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?
20%
chance
10% this week
What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?
7.06 M
7.5 percentage points this week
What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?
Key Factor
Many 6 months and 1 year holdings prone to being sold in the next months
Forecast revealed
in 2 days
Key Factor
Many 6 months and 1 year holdings prone to being sold in the next months
Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?
China
57.1%
Germany
14.9%
Italy
10.4%
and 4 others
Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?
10%
chance
What will be the disapproval rate of the most disliked AI lab (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind) on January 1, 2027?
39%
2.6 % this week
What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?
68.4%
2.3 % this week
What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?
22.3%
4.7 % this week
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