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DavidA.B.Mathers
Predictions
0
Comments
9
Member Since
July 2024
Overview
Track Record
Medals
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidA.B.Mathers
Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?
42%
chance
When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
Annulled
When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
02 Jan 2026
What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.
22.7%
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication
13 May 2026
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
06 Feb 2028
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?
30%
chance
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
12 Jan 2026
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
07 Sep 2025
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
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