Predictions 0
Comments 9
Member Since July 2024
Questions by DavidA.B.Mathers
Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038? When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version) When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version) Current estimate
17 Mar 2026
What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion. Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication Current estimate
13 May 2026
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus Current estimate
24 Jan 2028
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming? When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)? Current estimate
02 Jun 2026
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days) Current estimate
22 Dec 2025
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)