Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
DavidA.B.Mathers
Predictions
2
Comments
14
Member Since
July 2024
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidA.B.Mathers
3 comments
7 forecasters
Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?
50%
chance
2 comments
1 forecaster
When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
Annulled
4 comments
16 forecasters
When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
community
07 Jun 2026
result
07 Apr 2026 21:17 UTC
2 comments
1 forecaster
What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.
Current estimate
18.7%
0 comments
3 forecasters
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication
Current estimate
13 May 2026
10 comments
17 forecasters
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
community
13 Jul 2027
result
09 Feb 2026 10:55 UTC
0 comments
9 forecasters
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?
22%
chance
0 comments
2 forecasters
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
Current estimate
01 Sep 2026
1 comment
5 forecasters
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
Current estimate
13 Jul 2027
1 comment
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
community
result
25 Oct 2024 08:00 UTC
4 comments
11 forecasters
When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]
community
02 Aug 2025
result
12 Jun 2025 UTC
3 comments
21 forecasters
Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)
20%
chance