jack.andolina

Predictions139

Comments9

Member SinceJanuary 2025

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by jack.andolina

11 forecasters

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Current estimate

09 Feb 2028

167 forecasters

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

10%chance

23 forecasters

Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?

2%chance

43 forecasters

Will the ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis mediated by Oman be broken before June 2026?

resultNo

85 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

1%chance

174 forecasters

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

3%chance

138 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

resultNo

131 forecasters

Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?

resultNo

40 forecasters

Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?

Annulled

22 forecasters

Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?

14%chance

13 forecasters

Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?

resultYes

11 forecasters

How much of George Santos' 87 month sentence will he serve?

community

37.9 Months

result

2.76 Months

502 forecasters

Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?

6%chance

428 forecasters

How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?

Current estimate

89.1 journalists

Key Factors

Naive extrapolation for the rest of the year yields 97 total

402 forecasters

Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?

18%chance

259 forecasters

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

resultYes