Authors:
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 25, 2024
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
19% chance
52
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
58 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?
6% chance
70