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30
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371
forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1%
chance
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Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Dec 20, 2024
Closes:
Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:
Dec 25, 2024
Future Perfect
Artificial Intelligence
๐ 2024-2025 Leaderboard
News Match
Every AI Breakthrough Shifts the Goalposts of Artificial General Intelligence
Scientific American
โข
Nov 20, 2025
Muskโs xAI Will Be Profitable Sooner Than OpenAI, Former CFO Says
Forbes
โข
Nov 20, 2025
OpenAI Is Beating Forecasts, Adding Fuel to AI Supercycle: Analysts
Business Insider
โข
Nov 20, 2025
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