stupidme

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.899	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
58.695	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
29.669	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
26.220	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.431	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
25.040	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
22.719	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
22.545	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
19.852	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
19.482	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.926	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
14.032	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
13.430	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
13.078	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
12.804	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.816	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
10.563	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
10.284	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
9.363	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
8.986	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.859	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
8.191	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
7.439	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.065	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.014	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.909	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.244	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
2.831	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
2.674	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
2.479	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.364	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
2.068	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
-7.440	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-13.608	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
-30.468	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-31.231	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-32.628	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
-43.279	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-74.470	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous