maverickmath

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.865	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
77.385	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
46.334	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
38.944	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
31.545	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
31.111	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
29.014	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
27.132	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
22.757	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.221	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
20.670	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
18.990	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
18.988	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.240	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
16.936	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.807	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.766	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
13.041	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.368	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
11.056	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
9.931	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
9.600	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
9.530	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.155	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.917	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.906	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
7.800	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
7.223	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.018	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
6.536	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.531	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.347	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.089	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.086	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
5.436	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
5.177	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.701	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
4.675	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
4.502	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.480	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
4.367	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
4.340	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.200	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
4.003	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
3.476	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
3.440	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.735	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
2.725	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.661	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
2.412	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
2.334	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.213	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
2.118	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
2.060	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
2.006	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
1.932	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.844	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.623	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
1.531	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
1.270	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.200	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.941	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.933	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.692	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.599	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
0.551	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.433	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.939	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
-1.635	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.462	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
-4.930	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-7.201	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.923	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-8.084	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-12.094	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-13.994	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-24.551	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous