102.167 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
34.136 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
32.377 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
25.156 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
22.874 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
22.045 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
21.060 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor? | Continuous |
18.061 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
17.992 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
17.875 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
17.015 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
16.683 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
16.297 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
15.831 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
14.863 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
13.282 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
12.664 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
12.329 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
11.105 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
9.269 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
8.642 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.590 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
7.391 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
7.128 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
7.068 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
6.390 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
6.319 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.752 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
4.922 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.123 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
3.999 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
3.659 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
3.395 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
3.145 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
3.103 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
3.061 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.345 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
2.299 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
2.202 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
2.056 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
1.662 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
1.644 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
1.090 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
1.076 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
0.962 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
0.914 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.584 | What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
0.279 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
0.105 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
0.076 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.075 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.040 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.022 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.020 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.016 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
-0.008 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
-0.184 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
-9.289 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-20.519 | How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing? | Continuous |
-37.753 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |