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User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.85	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
71.172	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
70.242	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
64.742	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
61.392	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
48.070	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
44.897	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
40.772	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
40.434	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
38.638	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
38.396	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
29.765	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
27.507	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
26.422	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
22.357	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
20.977	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
19.925	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
19.183	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
17.776	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
17.066	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
16.642	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
15.273	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
15.093	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.637	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.560	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
13.495	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.441	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
13.047	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
12.796	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
8.076	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.544	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.405	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
5.785	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.932	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.193	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.934	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
2.903	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.446	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-0.325	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
-22.378	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-34.210	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-37.298	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-75.852	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-77.515	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
-80.111	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary