chazo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.41	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
48.498	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
38.069	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
30.338	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.083	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
28.923	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
23.584	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
20.680	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
17.156	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.824	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
15.998	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
15.175	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.555	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.777	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.146	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.138	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.829	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
12.453	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.614	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
10.052	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.040	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
9.304	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
8.450	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.892	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.453	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
5.794	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.077	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.372	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.686	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.333	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
2.940	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.676	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.671	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.625	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
1.594	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
1.286	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.258	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.575	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.302	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-46.965	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary