Sune

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

14.28	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
64.483	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.389	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
57.341	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
51.353	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
49.894	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
47.321	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
27.623	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
26.725	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
25.309	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
24.886	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
24.291	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
22.129	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.721	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
17.255	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.497	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
14.985	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
12.578	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
12.186	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
10.951	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
10.696	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.139	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.862	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.708	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.546	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.074	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
9.047	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.007	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.996	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
7.990	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
5.570	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
5.055	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.763	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.119	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.615	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
3.165	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
3.137	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.064	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.617	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.598	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.336	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
2.140	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.624	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
1.467	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
1.284	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.706	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-4.203	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-45.056	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous