santithebest

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.53	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.378	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
55.877	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.117	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.918	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.922	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
29.949	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.810	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
27.098	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
25.149	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
18.728	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
18.633	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.951	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.399	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.928	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.396	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.034	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
13.297	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.203	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
9.129	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
8.837	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
8.015	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.552	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
5.514	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
5.003	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
4.226	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.709	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.498	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.321	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.159	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.767	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-9.145	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-12.758	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-43.450	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous