silence

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.281	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
39.306	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
29.808	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
29.492	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
24.712	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
21.060	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.562	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
17.562	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.422	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.802	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.704	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
13.170	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.140	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
9.261	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.834	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
8.122	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
7.483	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.938	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
6.462	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
6.355	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.113	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
3.913	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
3.499	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.448	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.595	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.297	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.024	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.007	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.943	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.037	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.862	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
0.816	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
0.390	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-0.310	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
-5.992	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-7.790	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-30.794	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous