dank

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.268	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
27.626	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
24.693	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.051	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.030	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.082	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.727	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.045	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
10.577	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
10.465	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.286	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.140	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.192	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
7.970	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.650	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
6.204	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
6.159	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
6.116	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.558	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
5.271	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
4.295	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
3.734	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.647	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
3.299	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
2.737	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
2.716	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
2.625	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
2.487	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.360	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
2.313	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
2.069	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
1.916	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
1.899	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
1.408	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.576	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
0.519	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.621	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-15.088	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary