benelson7

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

717.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.233	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
74.988	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
53.617	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
48.711	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
46.424	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
33.782	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
30.939	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
27.924	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
27.277	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
25.091	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
24.724	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
23.509	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
23.425	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
23.174	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
23.055	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
21.933	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
17.251	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
17.144	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
16.204	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
16.083	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
15.956	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
14.343	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
14.298	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
13.710	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
13.593	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
11.070	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
11.069	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
11.057	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
10.681	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
10.520	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
10.109	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
10.035	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
9.855	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
9.213	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
8.394	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
8.309	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
7.451	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
5.642	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
5.020	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
4.879	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
4.340	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
4.041	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
3.680	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
3.330	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
2.952	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
2.802	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
2.790	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
2.322	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
1.779	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
1.596	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
1.559	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
1.287	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
1.169	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
1.113	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.922	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
0.846	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
0.698	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.641	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
0.603	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
0.578	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
0.549	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
0.306	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.296	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.159	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.114	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
0.085	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
0.074	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
0.005	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-0.129	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-1.039	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-2.184	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-3.392	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-4.680	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-6.404	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-7.655	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-9.874	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-10.115	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-13.780	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-20.033	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-30.875	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-43.251	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-45.025	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary