davidmanheim

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

865.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
111.356	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
76.291	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
67.028	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
67.012	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
59.773	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
58.576	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
57.732	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
57.608	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
57.435	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
57.205	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
48.222	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
47.607	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
46.713	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
46.458	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
37.945	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
37.125	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
36.946	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
29.331	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
27.069	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
26.249	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
25.579	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
22.644	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
19.583	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
10.219	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
10.105	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
9.748	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
9.577	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
7.117	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
4.868	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
1.569	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
1.167	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
1.083	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
0.659	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
0.472	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
0.431	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
0.418	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
0.314	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
-0.405	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-0.796	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-0.821	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
-10.958	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-11.621	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-13.024	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-16.550	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-24.668	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-72.359	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
-76.341	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-85.912	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary