robert.spiker

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.135k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.486	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
90.901	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
90.830	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
86.909	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
85.805	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
83.069	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
76.609	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
75.995	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
75.045	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
72.763	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
70.613	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
69.787	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
69.210	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
66.293	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
66.077	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
63.845	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
62.182	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
60.258	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
58.978	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
58.976	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
58.775	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
58.575	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
57.463	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
53.416	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
53.301	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
51.761	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
48.526	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
47.882	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
44.762	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
43.710	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
43.227	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
40.476	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
37.587	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
37.273	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
36.226	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
33.831	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
31.281	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
30.566	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
30.488	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
29.384	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
29.124	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
28.865	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
28.538	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
26.547	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
26.546	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
26.146	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
25.244	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
23.426	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
21.790	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
20.676	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
20.227	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
19.457	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
17.552	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
16.525	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
14.988	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
13.595	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
13.425	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
12.359	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
11.321	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
9.965	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
9.146	Airships by 2019?	Binary
7.838	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
6.761	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
6.301	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.196	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
0.447	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.031	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-0.924	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-5.657	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-7.436	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-8.210	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-9.291	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-15.073	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
-16.384	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-17.632	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-17.888	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-20.222	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-21.158	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-24.481	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-30.556	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-50.514	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-54.819	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-59.426	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-67.915	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-83.128	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-145.296	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous