James

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

2738	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
125.063	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
116.801	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
98.159	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
96.822	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
94.702	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
93.959	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.551	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
92.342	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
92.268	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
92.020	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
91.956	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
91.849	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
91.646	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
91.048	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
89.709	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
89.316	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
88.203	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
84.671	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
84.584	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
84.558	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
84.089	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
83.771	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
82.606	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
81.832	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
76.422	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
75.205	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
74.782	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
74.636	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
74.199	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
74.120	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
70.306	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
70.187	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
69.854	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
69.732	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
68.200	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
67.866	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
67.689	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
67.532	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
67.435	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
67.008	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
66.655	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
65.912	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
64.893	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
64.011	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
63.632	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
63.175	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
62.789	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
61.959	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
58.432	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
58.360	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
57.846	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
57.515	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
51.868	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
50.501	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
48.503	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
46.818	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
44.152	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
43.358	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
42.706	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
42.623	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
42.104	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
42.025	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
41.713	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
40.401	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
36.321	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
34.157	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
32.252	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
31.925	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
31.565	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
30.831	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
28.893	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
27.763	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
27.109	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
26.263	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
26.238	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.797	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
20.737	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
19.583	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
19.240	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
16.420	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
15.558	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
14.442	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
13.527	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
12.094	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
11.085	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
8.196	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
6.524	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
5.036	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
4.345	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
4.027	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
3.440	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
2.679	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
1.948	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
1.933	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.574	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
0.979	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
0.766	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
0.621	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.464	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
0.162	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
0.061	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-0.976	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-7.228	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-8.879	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-9.392	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-10.506	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-14.833	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
-15.066	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-15.248	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
-19.460	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-20.825	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-23.024	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-25.266	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
-32.155	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-35.811	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
-40.859	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
-45.676	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-49.760	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-49.834	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
-51.547	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-58.796	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-59.827	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-59.872	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-78.353	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-97.745	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-97.840	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-99.149	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-99.574	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-99.758	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-99.870	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-123.185	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-213.922	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-216.538	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-231.576	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-324.638	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary