muzzle

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

781.6	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.161	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
82.652	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
74.648	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
71.210	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
63.521	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
52.261	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
42.273	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
42.099	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
41.888	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
39.948	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
39.851	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
35.564	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
35.560	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
33.414	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
33.338	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
32.436	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
31.029	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
30.960	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
30.957	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
30.464	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
27.773	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
26.700	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
25.473	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
23.857	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
21.410	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
20.745	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
17.080	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
15.906	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
13.009	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
11.078	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
7.766	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
7.520	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
6.737	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
6.123	Airships by 2019?	Binary
6.104	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
5.792	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
3.150	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
3.055	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
0.060	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
-0.524	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
-0.855	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
-1.384	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-3.819	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-5.868	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-7.992	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-14.444	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-15.145	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-15.161	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-18.422	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-19.841	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
-20.189	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-26.646	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-28.403	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-30.757	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
-32.042	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-39.469	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-45.110	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-68.886	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary