r

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3694	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.110	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
141.933	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
99.799	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
98.516	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
97.030	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
96.590	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
95.547	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.712	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
90.768	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
89.473	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
87.216	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
86.376	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
86.300	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
86.122	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
83.186	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
77.723	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
75.785	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
74.833	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
74.724	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
72.660	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
72.075	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
71.374	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
71.090	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
70.091	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
70.051	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
67.807	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
66.850	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
65.832	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
65.729	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
65.292	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
63.763	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
63.757	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
62.675	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
61.060	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
61.027	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
60.492	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
60.489	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
60.377	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
60.113	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
59.992	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
58.304	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
57.352	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
56.366	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
52.565	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
52.479	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
50.710	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
48.528	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
48.351	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
47.557	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
47.027	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
46.735	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
46.530	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
44.619	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
44.322	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
40.780	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
39.974	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
39.693	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
37.705	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
36.897	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
36.279	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
34.563	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
33.541	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
33.428	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
33.270	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
33.222	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
31.854	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
31.312	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
30.563	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
30.041	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
28.674	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
28.198	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
27.805	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
26.270	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
25.406	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
25.188	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
24.795	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
22.485	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
17.353	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
16.272	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
15.798	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
14.993	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
13.796	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
10.537	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
10.529	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
10.181	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
8.872	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
8.769	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
6.232	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
5.430	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
4.812	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
3.876	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
2.855	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
2.529	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.410	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
0.392	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.169	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.025	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
-0.246	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
-0.451	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-1.318	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-1.683	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
-2.905	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-2.988	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
-2.998	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-4.450	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-7.160	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
-10.898	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
-11.449	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-11.529	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-12.867	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-13.359	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-14.885	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
-15.829	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-15.948	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-18.732	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-18.988	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-21.970	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-22.395	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-24.445	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-25.111	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-28.582	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-28.750	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-36.955	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
-43.419	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-58.315	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-71.178	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-158.736	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-173.503	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-190.338	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary