postmort

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.033k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.929	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
97.121	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
96.240	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
96.023	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
95.780	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
93.285	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
66.081	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
58.496	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
43.675	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
35.376	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
33.874	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
33.400	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
30.109	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
23.714	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
19.510	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
18.663	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
18.246	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
18.200	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
17.008	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
15.724	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
15.324	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
14.220	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
14.073	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
12.146	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
9.839	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
7.739	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
7.208	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
6.889	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
6.553	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.591	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
5.331	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
4.867	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
4.653	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
4.590	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
3.674	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
3.586	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
2.814	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
2.360	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
1.926	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
1.920	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
1.696	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
1.024	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.886	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
0.476	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.422	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.228	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.046	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
0.000	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-0.043	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-0.585	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-3.573	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-8.072	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-8.149	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-22.512	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-23.308	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-48.873	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary