Cloud breaker

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

550	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.673	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
77.869	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
66.424	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
62.524	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
59.967	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
57.821	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
57.415	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
57.271	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
57.009	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
56.093	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
55.509	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
51.256	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
49.593	Airships by 2019?	Binary
49.275	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
47.514	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
45.266	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
43.805	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
41.792	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
40.816	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
40.754	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
39.770	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
39.312	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
34.183	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
33.824	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
33.361	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
33.185	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
32.634	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
31.350	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
30.688	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
27.506	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
26.307	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
23.629	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
21.101	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
20.243	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
19.026	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
18.892	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
17.566	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
14.270	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
10.841	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
10.603	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
10.197	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
7.958	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
6.098	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
5.021	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.889	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
3.339	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
-	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-14.374	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-17.319	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-19.704	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
-27.568	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-61.044	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-99.600	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-416.730	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-451.066	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary