evanhefner

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

450.7	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
38.147	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
35.711	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
35.399	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
35.101	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
33.249	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
28.667	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
28.358	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
26.781	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
26.172	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
25.451	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
24.077	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
24.006	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
21.679	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
21.636	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
19.981	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
19.935	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
18.099	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
18.040	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.592	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
16.847	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
15.799	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
13.583	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
12.462	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
10.490	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
10.084	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
9.989	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
9.970	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
8.237	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
7.169	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
6.692	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
5.758	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
4.908	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
4.548	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
3.081	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
2.854	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
2.797	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
2.458	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
2.256	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
1.949	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
1.619	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.969	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
0.463	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
0.313	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
0.111	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
0.090	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-0.513	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
-1.670	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-4.016	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-4.571	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-5.098	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-5.243	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-5.725	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-6.229	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-8.262	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-10.071	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-17.890	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-18.340	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-21.845	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-24.243	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-25.023	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-44.182	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary