pagouy

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

479.3	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.207	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
67.360	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
67.353	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
67.034	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
55.134	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
54.030	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
45.166	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
38.477	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
35.937	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
35.043	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
34.239	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
28.323	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
27.888	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
22.813	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
22.056	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
21.204	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
20.786	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
20.271	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
19.543	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
16.905	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
14.617	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
14.108	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
10.409	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
9.102	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
7.954	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
4.744	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
2.643	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
2.496	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
2.491	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
1.476	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
1.110	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
0.727	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
0.462	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
0.215	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
0.087	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
-2.643	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-15.073	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-23.232	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-24.933	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-33.420	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-59.824	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-97.902	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-117.076	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary