banefieldeth

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

642.7	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.146	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
64.688	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
61.983	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
60.222	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
54.668	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
53.993	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
50.227	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
49.751	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
45.414	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
45.155	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
44.584	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
25.507	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
25.148	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
23.634	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
21.934	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
19.916	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
18.005	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
12.560	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
11.149	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
10.427	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
10.301	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
9.623	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
8.018	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
6.215	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.699	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
5.289	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
2.989	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
2.885	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
2.659	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
1.190	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
1.038	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.422	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
0.171	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
0.167	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-7.784	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-13.993	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-19.804	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-155.544	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous